Thursday, 8 January 2009

Gut Decisions

"Can you relate a decision that you have recently had to make that was done completely on core-intuition? How did a 'gut-feeling' influence your decision and what if you had been more rational? Would the outcome of your decision been different? "

Thinking with your gut instead of your head can lead to trouble. Literally. If you've seen Star Wars Return of the Jedi you might remember the scene in which Chewbacca spots some dead animal on the forest moon of Endor and heads right for it, thinking with his stomach rather than his brain. As a result, Chewie and his friends get caught in a trap.

What is an example of a decision we face every day? How about what to wear. Obviously, this should be a rational decision, based on the weather outside, and perhaps the current political climate (e.g. you wouldn't walk around a city in Saudi Arabia with a shirt bearing an American flag). These decisions should be made rationally. But say you are going on a vacation, somewhere far away. Let's say it's someplace warm and sunny by reputation. But let's also say that you have had a history of vacations with bad weather. Rationally, you should wear shorts and a short-sleeved shirt to this tropical destination--after all, the weatherman says it'll be clear skies all week. But your gut tells you that your bad luck might persist, and you wear a rain coat and jeans. That's a gut decision. It's not based on reason, but rather superstition and what you feel is going to happen. But what you wear has no effect upon the weather, and in this case the meteorologist was right. And you're stuck in Hawaii with rain gear...

OK it's just an example but you get my point.

Here's another example, something that happened to me. I was at the train station, waiting for my train home. In the mean-time I thought I'd grab a snack from the vending machine. I approached the machine, already trying to decide what I wanted. Their were two options I found appealing: A Kit-Kat Chunky White (Limited Edition!) bar or a Belgian Waffle. Both were mouth watering choices... equally attractive options. They were both the same price. So how would I decide? Here's the thing, I have much difficulty making decisions between two equally attractive options. The problem is, you can't really employ reason in this instance: both are just as unhealthy, more or less; same price; I don't really enjoy one more than the other. It's just deciding what I want to eat; it bears little real importance. So I had to make a decision based on how I felt at the time. I went for the Kit-Kat bar. I put in the coins, pressed the code. Now, every time I use a vending machine, I am slightly paranoid that the machine will glitch: either it'll steal my cash or the goods'll get stuck in the machine. There's always a small part of me expecting the worse in the back of my mind. And guess what? The spiral of metal inched the Kit-Kat forward, then it stopped. The candy bar got stuck in stupid contraption! If I believed in such a thing as jinxes, I would have kicked myself for thinking it'd get stuck. I cast a furtive glance at the security camera trained on my back--better not risk shaking the machine to get my prize, though I admit to being sorely tempted to do so. Now I had another choice to make! Fortunately I had more money on me. I could buy another Kit-Kat bar, pushing forth the first one and bringing me a second one. OR, I could buy the Belgian waffle, which was rather conveniently situated directly in line with the Kit-Kat slot, a couple of rows below the waffles. I could more or less be guaranteed two candy bars if I went for the Kit-Kat option. But if I went for the waffle, there was a good chance it'd free the Kit-Kat on its way down. Of course, it might not have hit it, and I would have lost money. But I had this gut feeling that it would. So I put in my coins, pressed the code, and watched with bated breath as my waffle slipped free and freed the candy bar on its journey to the bottom. So in the end I didn't lose any money, and I had a waffle I could enjoy at some later time. Could enjoy, being the keyword there. I ate them both. What? I was hungry. I had to feed my gut to make more gut decisions in the future, right?

So in the end it really depends on the situation, whether you use your intuition or reason.
What about a game of chess? Let's say you are about to make a move, to a place on the board where your enemy can easily slaughter your piece. But doing so will leave him wide open for a vicious counter attack. The opponent might accept the collateral damage, and violently cast aside your piece when given the soonest chance. Or he might have great plans for that "collateral damage," and play it smart. You cannot know what your opponent will do. You can only try to anticipate what they will do. You can try to use reason: you might know that your opponent is a timid person. But he could surprise you and attack your piece with a violent outburst ("HA HA HA!! I KILLED YOUR ROOK, POND SCUM!!!"). Not likely, but no one can know what someone's actions are going to be. Instead, a warrior must use their intuition to anticipate the enemy's actions.

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